GMP vs Listing Accuracy Study 2026
This page analyses IPO listing outcomes in comparison with their Grey Market Premium (GMP) before listing. The objective is to examine how grey market sentiment and demand expectations translate into actual listing performance.
The study tracks key indicators such as GMP accuracy, GMP direction, expected listing price, and the variance between GMP expectations and actual listing results.
For day-to-day changes in GMP, investors can track live and upcoming issues in our GMP Today section, which is updated regularly.
And for all the IPOs of 2026, check our Latest IPOs of 2026 section which has detailed information about all the IPOs.
GMP is an unofficial market indicator and is not regulated by SEBI, NSE, or BSE. It should not be treated as a reliable predictor of IPO listing performance.
Updated on 29.03.2026|14:20 PM
Overall GMP Accuracy Summary of IPOs of 2026
This section summarizes the overall accuracy of Grey Market Premium (GMP) in predicting IPO listing outcomes during 2026.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total IPOs Analysed | 35 |
| Average GMP (%) | 10.84 |
| Average Listing Gain (%) | 5.97 |
| Directional Accuracy (%) | 51.43 |
Mainboard IPOs: GMP vs Listing Performance
This section of the study records the details of Mainboard IPOs listed in 2026, including the expected listing price based on GMP, the actual listing price, listing gain or loss (%), and the variance between GMP expectations and actual listing performance.
SL No IPO Issue Price GMP Before Listing Expected Price Listing Price Listing Gain % Variance %
1 Shadowfax Technologies 124 -3.5 120.5 112.6 -9.19 -6.56
2 Amagi Media Labs 361 -1 360 318 -11.91 -11.67
3 Bharat Coking Coal (BCCL) 23 18.5 41.5 45 95.65 8.43
4 Gaudium IVF 79 0 79 83 5.06 5.06
5 Fractal Analytics 900 -28 872 876 -2.67 0.46
6 Aye Finance 129 -2 127 129 0.00 1.57
While GMP reflects sentiment, valuation often determines actual performance. See detailed valuation impact analysis. IPO Valuation vs Listing Performance Study 2026.
SME IPOs: GMP vs Listing Performance
This section of the study records the details of SME IPOs listed in 2026, including the expected listing price based on GMP, the actual listing price, listing gain or loss (%), and the variance between GMP expectations and actual listing performance.
SL No IPO Issue Price GMP before listing Expected Price Listing Price Listing Gain (%) Variance (%)
1 Shayona Engineering 144 4 148 144 0.00 -2.70
2 Digilogic Systems 104 0 104 83.2 -20.00 -20.00
3 KRM Ayurveda 135 22.5 157.5 172.1 27.48 9.27
4 Aritas Vinyl 47 0 47 47 0.00 0.00
5 Armour Security (India) 57 0 57 45.6 -20.00 -20.00
6 Victory Electric Vehicles 41 0 41 34.45 -15.98 -15.98
7 Yajur Fibres 174 0 174 139.2 -20.00 -20.00
8 E to E Transportation Infrastructure 174 162 336 330.6 90.00 -1.61
9 Modern Diagnostic & Research Centre 90 14 104 99.5 10.56 -4.33
10 Gabion Technologies 81 31 112 89 9.88 -20.54
11 Avana Electrosystems 59 10.5 69.5 77.5 31.36 11.51
12 GRE Renew Enertech 105 1 106 96 -8.57 -9.43
13 Narmadesh Brass Industries 515 0 515 495 -3.88 -3.88
14 Indo SMC 149 10 159 149 0.00 -6.29
15 Defrail Technologies 74 17 91 95 28.38 4.40
16 Manilam Industries 69 0 69 55.2 -20.00 -20.00
17 Yashhtej Industries (India) 110 0 110 88 -20.00 -20.00
18 Fractal Industries 216 8 224 229 6.02 2.23
19 Marushika Technology 117 2 119 120 2.56 0.84
20 Biopol Chemicals 108 1 109 111 2.78 1.83
21 PAN HR Solution 78 0 78 78.35 0.45 0.45
22 Brandman Retail 176 17 193 183 3.98 -5.18
23 Grover Jewells 88 0 88 96 9.09 9.09
24 C K K Retail Mart 163 0 163 163 0.00 0.00
25 Msafe Equipments 123 21 144 144 17.07 0.00
26 Kanishk Aluminium India 73 0 73 58.4 -20.00 -20.00
27 Accretion Nutraveda 129 68 197 191 48.06 -3.05
28 Kasturi Metal Composite 64 2 66 64 0.00 -3.03
29 Hannah Joseph Hospital 70 2 72 65 -7.14 -9.72
GMP Direction Accuracy by Segment
This section of the study records segment-wise IPO data in one place, showing the percentage of IPOs that listed in the correct GMP direction, along with the average GMP and average listing gain for both Mainboard and SME IPOs.
Segment IPO Count Correct Direction (%) Avg GMP % Avg Listing Gain %
Mainboard 6 66.67 12.11 12.82
SME 29 48.28 10.57 4.55
Mainboard IPOs deliver significantly higher listing gains than SME IPOs.
Mainboard IPOs show slightly higher GMP expectations compared to SME IPOs
Key Observations from GMP Behaviour
1. GMP Dreams vs Reality
GMP shows 11% expectation, but actual listing gains are just 6%. The market delivers almost half of what it promises
2. Mainboard vs SME Reality
Mainboard IPOs: Higher returns + better predictability SME IPOs: Lower returns + weaker accuracy Not all IPOs are worth the same risk
3. GMP = Coin Toss
Directional accuracy is just 51%, Blindly trusting GMP can be dangerous
Want clarity on these IPO terms? Explore our 100+IPO terms glossary for simple explanations.
To understand how different IPO factors interact, visit our dedicated IPO analytics page with comprehensive data on listing performance, GMP trends, and valuation analysis.
* GMP is unofficial and not regulated by SEBI. Data shared by MrMoneyFrugal is for educational purposes only and not an investment advice.
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