GMP vs Listing Accuracy Study 2026
This page analyses IPO listing outcomes in comparison with their Grey Market Premium (GMP) before listing. The objective is to examine how grey market sentiment and demand expectations translate into actual listing performance.
The study tracks key indicators such as GMP accuracy, GMP direction, expected listing price, and the variance between GMP expectations and actual listing results.
For day-to-day changes in GMP, investors can track live and upcoming issues in our GMP Today section, which is updated regularly.
And for all the IPOs of 2026, check our Latest IPOs of 2026 section which has detailed information about all the IPOs.
GMP is an unofficial market indicator and is not regulated by SEBI, NSE, or BSE. It should not be treated as a reliable predictor of IPO listing performance.
Updated on 18.04.2026|08:00 PM
Overall GMP Accuracy Summary of IPOs of 2026
This section summarizes the overall accuracy of Grey Market Premium (GMP) in predicting IPO listing outcomes during 2026.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total IPOs Analysed | 56 |
| Average GMP (%) | 6.67 |
| Average Listing Gain (%) | 2.96 |
GMP Directional Accuracy (Only IPOs Where GMP Exists)
Metric Value
IPOs with GMP Signal (≠ 0) 33
Correct Predictions 24
Incorrect Predictions 9
Directional Accuracy (%) 72.73
GMP predicts IPO listing direction with 72.73% accuracy when a clear signal is present, but nearly 41% IPOs showed no GMP signal.
Mainboard IPOs: GMP vs Listing Performance
This section of the study records the details of Mainboard IPOs listed in 2026, including the expected listing price based on GMP, the actual listing price, listing gain or loss (%), and the variance between GMP expectations and actual listing performance.
SL No IPO Issue Price GMP Before Listing Expected Price Listing Price Listing Gain % Variance %
1 Shadowfax Technologies 124 -3.5 120.5 112.6 -9.19 -6.56
2 Amagi Media Labs 361 -1 360 318 -11.91 -11.67
3 Bharat Coking Coal (BCCL) 23 18.5 41.5 45 95.65 8.43
4 Gaudium IVF 79 0 79 83 5.06 5.06
5 Fractal Analytics 900 -28 872 876 -2.67 0.46
6 Aye Finance 129 -2 127 129 0.00 1.57
7 Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions Limited 1,053 -35 1,018 960 -8.8 -5.70
8 Shree Ram Twistex Limited 104 -28 76 68 -34.6 -10.53
9 Central Mine Planning & Design Institute Limited (CMPDIL) 172 4 176 160 -7 -9.09
10 GSP Crop Science 320 2 322 328 2.5 1.86
11 Raajmarg Infra InvIT IPO 100 3.5 103.5 107 7 3.38
12 Innovision Limited 548 -85 463 467.7 -14.7 1.02
13 Rajputana Stainless 122 3 125 122 0 -2.40
14 Sedemac Mechatronics Limited 1,352 0 1,352 1535 13.54 13.54
15 Omnitech Engineering Limited 227 0 227 202 -11 -11.01
16 PNGS Reva Diamond Jewellery Limited 386 -20 366 375 -2.8 2.46
While GMP reflects sentiment, valuation often determines actual performance. See detailed valuation impact analysis. IPO Valuation vs Listing Performance Study 2026.
SME IPOs: GMP vs Listing Performance
This section of the study records the details of SME IPOs listed in 2026, including the expected listing price based on GMP, the actual listing price, listing gain or loss (%), and the variance between GMP expectations and actual listing performance.
SL No IPO Issue Price GMP before listing Expected Price Listing Price Listing Gain (%) Variance (%)
1 Shayona Engineering 144 4 148 144 0.00 -2.70
2 Digilogic Systems 104 0 104 83.2 -20.00 -20.00
3 KRM Ayurveda 135 22.5 157.5 172.1 27.48 9.27
4 Aritas Vinyl 47 0 47 47 0.00 0.00
5 Armour Security (India) 57 0 57 45.6 -20.00 -20.00
6 Victory Electric Vehicles 41 0 41 34.45 -15.98 -15.98
7 Yajur Fibres 174 0 174 139.2 -20.00 -20.00
8 E to E Transportation Infrastructure 174 162 336 330.6 90.00 -1.61
9 Modern Diagnostic & Research Centre 90 14 104 99.5 10.56 -4.33
10 Gabion Technologies 81 31 112 89 9.88 -20.54
11 Avana Electrosystems 59 10.5 69.5 77.5 31.36 11.51
12 GRE Renew Enertech 105 1 106 96 -8.57 -9.43
13 Narmadesh Brass Industries 515 0 515 495 -3.88 -3.88
14 Indo SMC 149 10 159 149 0.00 -6.29
15 Defrail Technologies 74 17 91 95 28.38 4.40
16 Manilam Industries 69 0 69 55.2 -20.00 -20.00
17 Yashhtej Industries (India) 110 0 110 88 -20.00 -20.00
18 Fractal Industries 216 8 224 229 6.02 2.23
19 Marushika Technology 117 2 119 120 2.56 0.84
20 Biopol Chemicals 108 1 109 111 2.78 1.83
21 PAN HR Solution 78 0 78 78.35 0.45 0.45
22 Brandman Retail 176 17 193 183 3.98 -5.18
23 Grover Jewells 88 0 88 96 9.09 9.09
24 C K K Retail Mart 163 0 163 163 0.00 0.00
25 Msafe Equipments 123 21 144 144 17.07 0.00
26 Kanishk Aluminium India 73 0 73 58.4 -20.00 -20.00
27 Accretion Nutraveda 129 68 197 191 48.06 -3.05
28 Kasturi Metal Composite 64 2 66 64 0.00 -3.03
29 Hannah Joseph Hospital 70 2 72 65 -7.14 -9.72
30 Kiaasa Retail Limited 127 0 127 123 -3.1 -3.15
31 Accord Transformer & Switchgear Limited 46 4 50 50 8.7 0.00
32 Mobilise App Lab Limited 80 4 84 64.1 -19.9 -23.69
33 Speciality Medicines 124 0 124 124 0 0.00
34 Novus Loyalty Limited 146 0 146 146 0 0.00
35 Apsis Aerocom Limited 110 25 135 153 39.09 13.33
36 Srinibas Pradhan Constructions 98 0 98 100.05 2.09 2.09
37 Elfin Agro India 47 0 47 47.3 0.64 0.64
38 Acetech E-Commerce Limited 112 0 112 112 0 0.00
39 Striders Impex Limited 72 0 72 70 -2.8 -2.78
40 Yaap Digital Limited 145 0 145 127 -12.4 -12.41
GMP Direction Accuracy by Segment
This section of the study records segment-wise IPO data in one place, showing the percentage of IPOs that listed in the correct GMP direction, along with the average GMP and average listing gain for both Mainboard and SME IPOs.
Segment IPOs (GMP ≠ 0) Correct Direction Incorrect Direction Directional Accuracy (%) Avg GMP (%) Avg Listing Gain (%)
Mainboard 13 10 3 76.92 2.36 1.04
SME 20 14 6 70 17.15 14.51
Segment-wise accuracy is calculated only for IPOs where GMP ≠ 0. Average GMP and Listing Gain are calculated for the same set of IPOs to maintain consistency
In 2026, SME IPOs recorded a higher average GMP (17.15%) compared to Mainboard IPOs (2.36%).
In 2026, SME IPOs recorded a higher average listing gain (14.51%) compared to Mainboard IPOs (1.04%).
Key Observations from GMP Behaviour
1. GMP Dreams vs Reality
GMP shows 11% expectation, but actual listing gains are just 6%. The market delivers almost half of what it promises
2. Mainboard vs SME Reality
Mainboard IPOs: Higher returns + better predictability SME IPOs: Lower returns + weaker accuracy Not all IPOs are worth the same risk
3. GMP = Coin Toss
Directional accuracy is just 51%, Blindly trusting GMP can be dangerous
Want clarity on these IPO terms? Explore our 100+IPO terms glossary for simple explanations.
To understand how different IPO factors interact, visit our dedicated IPO analytics page with comprehensive data on listing performance, GMP trends, and valuation analysis.
How the GMP vs Listing Accuracy Study 2026 is Maintained
The GMP data is sourced from our GMP Today hub page. IPO-related data is taken from our Latest IPO Calendar, where all IPO details are consistently published and updated. Additional validation is done using our individual IPO review pages, which contain comprehensive information for each IPO.
GMP variance is calculated by:
GMP Variance (%) = ((Listing Price − Expected Price) ÷ Expected Price) × 100
Overall GMP Accuracy Summary
The Overall GMP Accuracy Summary table includes all listed IPOs.
- Average GMP (%) is calculated across all IPOs, including those where GMP was zero or neutral (NIL)
- Average Listing Gain (%) represents the average of listing gains/losses across all IPOs
This section provides a broad market overview, not predictive accuracy.
GMP Directional Accuracy
The GMP Directional Accuracy table includes only IPOs where:
- GMP ≠ 0 (i.e., a clear signal exists)
- Correct Prediction: GMP direction matches actual listing direction
- Positive GMP → Listing Gain
- Negative GMP → Listing Loss
- Incorrect Prediction: GMP direction does not match listing outcome
Directional Accuracy (%) = (Correct Predictions ÷ Total IPOs with GMP ≠ 0) × 100
* GMP is unofficial and not regulated by SEBI. Data shared by MrMoneyFrugal is for educational purposes only and not an investment advice.
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