GMP vs Listing Accuracy Study 2026
This page analyses IPO listing outcomes in comparison with their Grey Market Premium (GMP) before listing. The objective is to examine how grey market sentiment and demand expectations translate into actual listing performance.
The study tracks key indicators such as GMP accuracy, GMP direction, expected listing price, and the variance between GMP expectations and actual listing results.
For day-to-day changes in GMP, investors can track live and upcoming issues in our GMP Today section, which is updated regularly.
And for all the IPOs of 2026, check our Latest IPOs of 2026 section which has detailed information about all the IPOs.
GMP is an unofficial market indicator and is not regulated by SEBI, NSE, or BSE. It should not be treated as a reliable predictor of IPO listing performance.
Updated on 09.07.2026|10:30 PM
Overall GMP Accuracy Summary of IPOs of 2026 (listed till June 2026)
This section summarizes the overall accuracy of Grey Market Premium (GMP) in predicting IPO listing outcomes during 2026.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total IPOs Analysed | 104 |
| Average GMP (%) | 8.35 |
| Average Listing Gain (%) | 5.56 |
Based on an analysis of 104 IPOs listed in 2026, the average GMP was 8.35%, while the average listing gain stood at 5.56%, indicating that actual listing performance lagged GMP expectations on average.
GMP Directional Accuracy (Only IPOs Where GMP Exists)
Metric Value
IPOs with GMP Signal (≠ 0) 62
Correct Predictions 47
Incorrect Predictions 15
Directional Accuracy 75.81
Only IPOs with a non-zero GMP signal are included in this analysis. GMP correctly predicted the listing direction in 47 out of 62 IPOs, resulting in a directional accuracy of 75.81%.
Mainboard IPOs: GMP vs Listing Performance
This section of the study records the details of Mainboard IPOs listed in 2026, including the expected listing price based on GMP, the actual listing price, listing gain or loss (%), and the variance between GMP expectations and actual listing performance.
SL No IPO Issue Price GMP Before Listing Expected Price Listing Price Listing Gain % Variance %
1 Shadowfax Technologies 124 -3.5 120.5 112.6 -9.19 -6.56
2 Amagi Media Labs 361 -1 360 318 -11.91 -11.67
3 Bharat Coking Coal (BCCL) 23 18.5 41.5 45 95.65 8.43
4 Gaudium IVF 79 0 79 83 5.06 5.06
5 Fractal Analytics 900 -28 872 876 -2.67 0.46
6 Aye Finance 129 -2 127 129 0.00 1.57
7 Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions Limited 1,053 -35 1,018 960 -8.8 -5.70
8 Shree Ram Twistex Limited 104 -28 76 68 -34.6 -10.53
9 Central Mine Planning & Design Institute Limited (CMPDIL) 172 4 176 160 -7 -9.09
10 GSP Crop Science 320 2 322 328 2.5 1.86
11 Raajmarg Infra InvIT IPO 100 3.5 103.5 107 7 3.38
12 Innovision Limited 548 -85 463 467.7 -14.7 1.02
13 Rajputana Stainless 122 3 125 122 0 -2.40
14 Sedemac Mechatronics Limited 1,352 0 1,352 1535 13.54 13.54
15 Omnitech Engineering Limited 227 0 227 202 -11 -11.01
16 PNGS Reva Diamond Jewellery Limited 386 -20 366 375 -2.8 2.46
17 Citius TransNet InvIT 100 4 104 104.6 4.60 0.58
18 Om Power Transmission Mainboard 175 4 179 186 6.29 3.91
19 Amir Chand Jagdish Kumar (Exports) Limited Mainboard 212 2 214 200 -5.66 -6.54
20 Sai Parenteral’s Limited Mainboard 392 0 392 400 2.04 2.04
21 Powerica Limited Mainboard 395 0 395 366 -7.34 -7.34
22 Bagmane Prime Office REIT 100 4 104 103.5 3.5 -0.48
23 Kissht IPO 171 22 193 190 11.11 -1.55
24 Hexagon Nutrition 45 4 49 48.25 7.22 -2
25 CMR Green Technologies 192 67 259 268 39.58 3
26 Turtlemint Fintech 152 -5 147 134.9 -11.25 -8
While GMP reflects sentiment, valuation often determines actual performance. See detailed valuation impact analysis. IPO Valuation vs Listing Performance Study 2026.
SME IPOs: GMP vs Listing Performance
This section of the study records the details of SME IPOs listed in 2026, including the expected listing price based on GMP, the actual listing price, listing gain or loss (%), and the variance between GMP expectations and actual listing performance.
SL No IPO Issue Price GMP before listing Expected Price Listing Price Listing Gain (%) Variance (%)
1 Shayona Engineering 144 4 148 144 0.00 -2.70
2 Digilogic Systems 104 0 104 83.2 -20.00 -20.00
3 KRM Ayurveda 135 22.5 157.5 172.1 27.48 9.27
4 Aritas Vinyl 47 0 47 47 0.00 0.00
5 Armour Security (India) 57 0 57 45.6 -20.00 -20.00
6 Victory Electric Vehicles 41 0 41 34.45 -15.98 -15.98
7 Yajur Fibres 174 0 174 139.2 -20.00 -20.00
8 E to E Transportation Infrastructure 174 162 336 330.6 90.00 -1.61
9 Modern Diagnostic & Research Centre 90 14 104 99.5 10.56 -4.33
10 Gabion Technologies 81 31 112 89 9.88 -20.54
11 Avana Electrosystems 59 10.5 69.5 77.5 31.36 11.51
12 GRE Renew Enertech 105 1 106 96 -8.57 -9.43
13 Narmadesh Brass Industries 515 0 515 495 -3.88 -3.88
14 Indo SMC 149 10 159 149 0.00 -6.29
15 Defrail Technologies 74 17 91 95 28.38 4.40
16 Manilam Industries 69 0 69 55.2 -20.00 -20.00
17 Yashhtej Industries (India) 110 0 110 88 -20.00 -20.00
18 Fractal Industries 216 8 224 229 6.02 2.23
19 Marushika Technology 117 2 119 120 2.56 0.84
20 Biopol Chemicals 108 1 109 111 2.78 1.83
21 PAN HR Solution 78 0 78 78.35 0.45 0.45
22 Brandman Retail 176 17 193 183 3.98 -5.18
23 Grover Jewells 88 0 88 96 9.09 9.09
24 C K K Retail Mart 163 0 163 163 0.00 0.00
25 Msafe Equipments 123 21 144 144 17.07 0.00
26 Kanishk Aluminium India 73 0 73 58.4 -20.00 -20.00
27 Accretion Nutraveda 129 68 197 191 48.06 -3.05
28 Kasturi Metal Composite 64 2 66 64 0.00 -3.03
29 Hannah Joseph Hospital 70 2 72 65 -7.14 -9.72
30 Kiaasa Retail Limited 127 0 127 123 -3.1 -3.15
31 Accord Transformer & Switchgear Limited 46 4 50 50 8.7 0.00
32 Mobilise App Lab Limited 80 4 84 64.1 -19.9 -23.69
33 Speciality Medicines 124 0 124 124 0 0.00
34 Novus Loyalty Limited 146 0 146 146 0 0.00
35 Apsis Aerocom Limited 110 25 135 153 39.09 13.33
36 Srinibas Pradhan Constructions 98 0 98 100.05 2.09 2.09
37 Elfin Agro India 47 0 47 47.3 0.64 0.64
38 Acetech E-Commerce Limited 112 0 112 112 0 0.00
39 Striders Impex Limited 72 0 72 70 -2.8 -2.78
40 Yaap Digital Limited 145 0 145 127 -12.4 -12.41
41 Adisoft Technologies SME 172 21 193 205 19.19 6.22
42 Mehul Telecom SME 98 4 102 108 10.20 5.88
43 Safety Controls & Devices SME 80 0 80 83 3.75 3.75
44 Emiac Technologies Limited SME 98 0 98 107.8 10.00 10.00
45 Vivid Electromech SME 555 0 555 565 1.80 1.80
46 Highness Microelectronics SME 120 25 145 125 4.17 -13.79
47 Tipco Engineering India Limited SME 89 0 89 89.25 0.28 0.28
48 Amba Auto Sales & Services 135 0 135 134.5 -0.37 -0.37
49 Teamtech Formwork 63 5 68 75 19.05 10.29
50 NFP Sampoorna Foods Limited 55 0 55 54.5 -0.91 -0.91
51 Goldline Pharmaceutical 43 17 60 59.75 38.95 -0.42
52 RFBL Flexi Pack 50 2 52 52.5 5 0.96
53 Simca Advertising 183 2 185 156 -14.75 -15.68
54 Recode Studios 158 50 208 213.1 34.87 2.45
55 Value 360 Communications 98 1 99 78.4 -20 -20.81
56 Q-Line Biotech SME 343 125 468 452 31.78 -3.42
57 Bio Medica Laboratories 139 -5 134 111.2 -20 -17.01
58 Autofurnish Limited 41 0 41 43 4.88 4.88
59 Vegorama Punjabi Angithi 77 9 86 118.1 53.38 37.33
60 Utkal Speciality Industries 66 0 66 66 0 0
61 Genxai Analytics 116 1 117 92.8 -20 -21
62 UHM Vacation 166 0 166 132.8 -20 -20
63 Vahh Chemicals 60 7 67 70 16.67 4
64 Merritronix 149 67 216 283.1 90 31
65 Aureate Tradde 70 1 71 70 0 -1
66 SMR Jewels 128 0 128 102.95 -19.57 -20
67 Rajnandini Fashion India 63 7 70 63 0 -10
68 Yaashvi Jewellers Limited 83 0 83 83 0 0
69 M R Maniveni Foods 52 0 52 42.55 -18.17 -18
70 Avience Biomedicals 208 145 353 395.2 90 12
71 Diksha Polymers 112 0 112 114.5 2.23 2
72 Clay Craft IPO 203 35 238 211 3.94 -11
73 Leapfrog Engineering 23 0 23 22 -4.35 -4
74 Liotech Industries 321 0 321 257 -19.94 -20
75 Horizon Reclaim (India) 103 75 178 151 46.6 -15
76 Susan Electricals India 127 43 170 186 46.46 9
77 Anubhav Plast 80 0 80 80 0 0
78 Harikanta Overseas 91 0 91 79.75 -12.36 -12
GMP Direction Accuracy by Segment
This section of the study records segment-wise IPO data in one place, showing the percentage of IPOs that listed in the correct GMP direction, along with the average GMP and average listing gain for both Mainboard and SME IPOs.
Segment IPOs (GMP ≠ 0) Correct Direction Incorrect Direction Directional Accuracy (%) Avg GMP (%) Avg Listing Gain (%)
Mainboard 21 17 4 80.95 4.54 3.28
SME 41 30 11 73.17 18.87 17.7
Segment-wise accuracy is calculated only for IPOs where GMP ≠ 0. Average GMP and Listing Gain are calculated for the same set of IPOs to maintain consistency
SME IPOs recorded a significantly higher average GMP of 18.87%, compared to just 4.54% for Mainboard IPOs, indicating stronger grey market sentiment toward SME offerings during the study period.
SME IPOs delivered an average listing gain of 17.70%, substantially outperforming Mainboard IPOs, which generated an average listing gain of 3.28% during the analysis period.
Key Observations from GMP Behaviour
1. GMP Was Directionally Correct in 3 Out of 4 Cases
Out of 62 IPOs with a non-zero GMP signal, GMP correctly predicted the listing direction in 47 cases, resulting in a directional accuracy of 75.81%. This indicates that GMP remained a reasonably effective indicator of listing direction, although it was far from infallible.
2. SME IPOs Generated Stronger Market Enthusiasm
SME IPOs recorded an average GMP of 18.87% and an average listing gain of 17.70%, significantly higher than Mainboard IPOs at 4.54% and 3.28%, respectively. The data suggests that investor demand and speculative interest were considerably stronger in the SME segment during the study period.
3. Higher GMP Did Not Translate Into Better Prediction Accuracy
Despite SME IPOs having an average GMP more than four times that of Mainboard IPOs, their directional accuracy (73.17%) was lower than Mainboard IPOs (80.95%). This shows that larger GMP premiums were associated with higher listing gains but did not necessarily improve the reliability of GMP as a directional indicator.
Want clarity on these IPO terms? Explore our 100+IPO terms glossary for simple explanations.
To understand how different IPO factors interact, visit our dedicated IPO analytics page with comprehensive data on listing performance, GMP trends, and valuation analysis.
How the GMP vs Listing Accuracy Study 2026 is Maintained
The GMP data is sourced from our GMP Today hub page. IPO-related data is taken from our Latest IPO Calendar, where all IPO details are consistently published and updated. Additional validation is done using our individual IPO review pages, which contain comprehensive information for each IPO.
GMP variance is calculated by:
GMP Variance (%) = ((Listing Price − Expected Price) ÷ Expected Price) × 100
Overall GMP Accuracy Summary
The Overall GMP Accuracy Summary table includes all listed IPOs.
- Average GMP (%) is calculated across all IPOs, including those where GMP was zero or neutral (NIL)
- Average Listing Gain (%) represents the average of listing gains/losses across all IPOs
This section provides a broad market overview, not predictive accuracy.
GMP Directional Accuracy
The GMP Directional Accuracy table includes only IPOs where:
- GMP ≠ 0 (i.e., a clear signal exists)
- Correct Prediction: GMP direction matches actual listing direction
- Positive GMP → Listing Gain
- Negative GMP → Listing Loss
- Incorrect Prediction: GMP direction does not match listing outcome
Directional Accuracy (%) = (Correct Predictions ÷ Total IPOs with GMP ≠ 0) × 100
* GMP is unofficial and not regulated by SEBI. Data shared by MrMoneyFrugal is for educational purposes only and not an investment advice.
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